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could demand exhaustion trigger a sharp pullback into seasonally weak months?

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  • 19 trade entry setups at the key levels and stop loss for short-term swing.

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Market Discussion

Discover why this low-volume breakout might still fuel the rally in the S&P 500 and what critical signs traders must watch before momentum fades.
Watch the video from the WLGC session on 22 Jul 2025 to find out the following:

  • The one key sign that could warn traders when bullish momentum is truly running out.

  • The role of seasonality (August–September softness vs. October rally) in shaping market expectations.

  • How to interpret indecision in price action — and what it means for short-term versus long-term trends.

  • How to spot the exhaustion of demand with price volume analysis.

  • And a lot more…

Shallow Consolidation: Constructive for Bulls?

The S&P 500 is experiencing a shallow consolidation — so minimal, it doesn’t even qualify as a true pullback. Both demand and supply are low, as reflected by the light trading volume.

Breakout Lacks Serious Momentum

Last Thursday saw a breakout, but notably, it arrived with only normal (and relatively low) volume. Since then, there’s been no convincing follow-through to the upside.

Recent candlestick patterns — like doji and rejection bars — suggest ongoing indecision between bulls and bears.

What’s Preventing a Sell-Off?

Despite all-time highs, there’s little inclination among traders to take profits. The rejection tails in recent sessions indicate only minor profit-taking, and price action is staying within a tight trading range.

As long as this range holds, the market could continue to grind higher.

Seasonality Factors in Play

End-of-summer months traditionally aren’t strong for equities. August and September often see choppy, sideways markets, with potential for renewed strength heading into October and the year-end holiday season.

Still, follow the price action closely and not get too caught up in forecasts.

Roadmap Going Forward

As of now, the market structure remains bullish. A temporary pullback or consolidation inside the trading range wouldn’t be surprising — and could even help prepare the path for another leg up.

The key warning sign to watch for: increasing supply and bearish volume spikes. Absent those, the immediate trend remains slightly bullish, with potential for another run higher.

Final Thoughts

Bottom line: We’re in a constructive phase, but with low volume and some indecision looming, it’s important to watch for signs of either renewed demand or an uptick in supply.

Follow the price action, stay nimble, and don’t over-anticipate — that’s the Wyckoff way!

Market Environment

The bullish vs. bearish setup is 618 to 115 from the screenshot of my stock screener below.

Wyckoff method stock screener
Wyckoff method stock screener

3 Stocks Ready To Soar

19 actionable setups such as STX 0.00%↑ TD 0.00%↑ EYE 0.00%↑ were discussed during the live session on 15 Jul 2025 before the market open (BMO).

Seagate Technology Holdings (STX) stock buy signal
Seagate Technology Holdings (STX)
Toronto Dominion Bank (TD) stock buy signal
Toronto Dominion Bank (TD)
National Vision Holdings (EYE) stock buy signal
National Vision Holdings (EYE)

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Disclaimer: The information in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and should not be taken as investment advice.

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